Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for VTV — the calendar windows where Vanguard Value ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
VTV seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, VTV's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 12 – Nov 11: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +3.98% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, VTV has historically declined between Sep 12 – Oct 12, falling in 7 of 10 years (average -1.01%).
In total, our analysis finds 431 recurring seasonal windows for Vanguard Value ETF — 366 bullish and 65 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Sep 26 – Oct 26, opens in 61 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
VTV's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 3d ago | Jul 14 – Jul 24 | 10d | +1.05% | 90% | +0.58% |
| Completedended 3d ago | Jul 4 – Jul 24 | 20d | +1.71% | 90% | +0.31% |
| Upcomingin 61d | Sep 26 – Oct 26 | 30d | +1.14% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 62d | Sep 27 – Oct 17 | 20d | +1.16% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 74d | Oct 9 – Nov 8 | 30d | +2.42% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 75d | Oct 10 – Nov 9 | 30d | +2.91% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 76d | Oct 11 – Nov 10 | 30d | +3.94% | 90% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore VTV seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
VTV seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy VTV stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, VTV's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 12 to Nov 11, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +3.98%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is VTV's strongest seasonal pattern?
VTV's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 12 – Nov 11 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +3.98%.
When has VTV historically performed worst?
VTV's weakest recurring window has been Sep 12 to Oct 12, declining in 7 of 10 years with an average return of -1.01%.
How reliable are VTV's seasonal patterns?
Each VTV pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. VTV currently shows 431 recurring windows (366 bullish, 65 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is VTV stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard Value ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where VTV has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.