Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for VWO — the calendar windows where Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
VWO seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, VWO's strongest seasonal window has been May 19 – Jun 8: it ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +3.16% across a 20-day hold. On the weak side, VWO has historically declined between Feb 18 – Feb 28, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -2.58%).
In total, our analysis finds 405 recurring seasonal windows for Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF — 341 bullish and 64 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 15 – Sep 14, opens in 19 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
VWO's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 11d ago | Jun 26 – Jul 16 | 20d | +2.39% | 80% | +0.44% |
| Completedended 12d ago | Jun 25 – Jul 15 | 20d | +2.68% | 80% | +1.16% |
| Upcomingin 19d | Aug 15 – Sep 14 | 30d | +1.23% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 23d | Aug 19 – Aug 29 | 10d | +1.51% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 74d | Oct 9 – Nov 8 | 30d | +1.50% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 93d | Oct 28 – Nov 7 | 10d | +2.66% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 94d | Oct 29 – Nov 8 | 10d | +2.53% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore VWO seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
VWO seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy VWO stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, VWO's strongest seasonal window starts in May: May 19 to Jun 8, which ended higher in 9 of 10 years (90% win rate) with an average return of +3.16%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is VWO's strongest seasonal pattern?
VWO's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the May 19 – Jun 8 window (20-day hold): up in 9 of the last 10 years with an average move of +3.16%.
When has VWO historically performed worst?
VWO's weakest recurring window has been Feb 18 to Feb 28, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -2.58%.
How reliable are VWO's seasonal patterns?
Each VWO pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. VWO currently shows 405 recurring windows (341 bullish, 64 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is VWO stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where VWO has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.