Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for VYM — the calendar windows where Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
VYM seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, VYM's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 30 – Nov 29: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.38% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, VYM has historically declined between Feb 21 – Mar 23, falling in 6 of 10 years (average -3.50%).
In total, our analysis finds 421 recurring seasonal windows for Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF — 358 bullish and 63 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Oct 10 – Nov 9, opens in 75 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
VYM's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 3d ago | Jul 14 – Jul 24 | 10d | +1.03% | 90% | +0.69% |
| Completedended 3d ago | Jul 4 – Jul 24 | 20d | +1.56% | 90% | +1.13% |
| Upcomingin 75d | Oct 10 – Nov 9 | 30d | +2.72% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 76d | Oct 11 – Nov 10 | 30d | +3.69% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 77d | Oct 12 – Nov 11 | 30d | +3.78% | 100% | — |
| Upcomingin 78d | Oct 13 – Nov 12 | 30d | +3.10% | 100% | — |
| Upcomingin 79d | Oct 14 – Nov 13 | 30d | +3.07% | 100% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore VYM seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
VYM seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy VYM stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, VYM's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 30 to Nov 29, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.38%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is VYM's strongest seasonal pattern?
VYM's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 30 – Nov 29 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +4.38%.
When has VYM historically performed worst?
VYM's weakest recurring window has been Feb 21 to Mar 23, declining in 6 of 10 years with an average return of -3.50%.
How reliable are VYM's seasonal patterns?
Each VYM pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. VYM currently shows 421 recurring windows (358 bullish, 63 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is VYM stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where VYM has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.