Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for XLF — the calendar windows where Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
XLF seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, XLF's strongest seasonal window has been Jun 29 – Jul 29: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.15% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, XLF has historically declined between Jun 6 – Jun 26, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -3.10%).
In total, our analysis finds 605 recurring seasonal windows for Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund — 485 bullish and 120 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Aug 19 – Sep 18, opens in 23 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
XLF's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 3d ago | Jun 24 – Jul 24 | 30d | +4.07% | 90% | +3.93% |
| Completedended 4d ago | Jun 23 – Jul 23 | 30d | +3.73% | 100% | +3.62% |
| Upcomingin 23d | Aug 19 – Sep 18 | 30d | +1.12% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 24d | Aug 20 – Aug 30 | 10d | +1.37% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 25d | Aug 21 – Aug 31 | 10d | +1.16% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 26d | Aug 22 – Sep 1 | 10d | +1.18% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 27d | Aug 23 – Sep 2 | 10d | +1.36% | 90% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore XLF seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
XLF seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy XLF stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, XLF's strongest seasonal window starts in June: Jun 29 to Jul 29, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.15%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is XLF's strongest seasonal pattern?
XLF's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Jun 29 – Jul 29 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +4.15%.
When has XLF historically performed worst?
XLF's weakest recurring window has been Jun 6 to Jun 26, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -3.10%.
How reliable are XLF's seasonal patterns?
Each XLF pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. XLF currently shows 605 recurring windows (485 bullish, 120 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is XLF stock seasonality?
Stock seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where XLF has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.