Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for XLY — the calendar windows where Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
XLY seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, XLY's strongest seasonal window has been Jun 29 – Jul 29: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.88% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, XLY has historically declined between Feb 25 – Mar 7, falling in 9 of 10 years (average -2.26%).
In total, our analysis finds 609 recurring seasonal windows for Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund — 497 bullish and 112 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Oct 11 – Nov 10, opens in 30 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
XLY's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 12d ago | Aug 20 – Aug 30 | 10d | +1.28% | 80% | +0.45% |
| Completedended 29d ago | Aug 3 – Aug 13 | 10d | +1.53% | 80% | +0.20% |
| Upcomingin 30d | Oct 11 – Nov 10 | 30d | +3.14% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 31d | Oct 12 – Nov 11 | 30d | +3.42% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 32d | Oct 13 – Nov 12 | 30d | +2.64% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 41d | Oct 22 – Nov 11 | 20d | +3.06% | 90% | — |
| Upcomingin 44d | Oct 25 – Nov 14 | 20d | +2.00% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore XLY seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
XLY seasonality FAQ
What has historically been the best month to buy XLY stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, XLY's strongest seasonal window starts in June: Jun 29 to Jul 29, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.88%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is XLY's strongest seasonal pattern?
XLY's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Jun 29 – Jul 29 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +4.88%.
When has XLY historically performed worst?
XLY's weakest recurring window has been Feb 25 to Mar 7, declining in 9 of 10 years with an average return of -2.26%.
How reliable are XLY's seasonal patterns?
Each XLY pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. XLY currently shows 609 recurring windows (497 bullish, 112 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is XLY stock seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency of a stock to perform in a similar way during the same period each year. By analysing Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund's price history across many years, SeasonalityX identifies recurring calendar windows — exact start and end dates — where XLY has repeatedly risen (bullish) or fallen (bearish). Each pattern is scored by its win rate and average return so you can judge how reliable and how strong it has been.
Seasonality is one input among many — it works best alongside your own research and risk management. Learn more in our guide to seasonal analysis and the tutorials.