SPY Seasonality Chart: S&P 500 Best and Worst Months
November 3, 2026
SPY tracks the S&P 500, so SPY seasonality is the closest thing to a seasonality chart of the US stock market itself. Using 15 years of split- and dividend-adjusted prices (2011 to 2025), here is how each month and the most reliable calendar windows have behaved.
SPY seasonality chart: the average year
S&P 500 seasonality by month
| Month | SPY avg return | Rose in (15y) |
|---|---|---|
| January | +1.28% | 9 of 15 |
| February | +1.12% | 10 of 15 |
| March | +0.57% | 11 of 15 |
| April | +1.18% | 11 of 15 |
| May | +1.03% | 12 of 15 |
| June | +1.37% | 11 of 15 |
| July | +2.70% | 13 of 15 |
| August | +0.16% | 9 of 15 |
| September | −1.16% | 8 of 15 |
| October | +2.17% | 9 of 15 |
| November | +3.29% | 13 of 15 |
| December | +0.31% | 10 of 15 |
Best months: November and July
November has been the strongest month, averaging +3.29% and rising in 13 of 15 years. July is second at +2.70%, also up in 13 of 15. October has a high average (+2.17%) but only rose in 9 of 15 years, so a few big Octobers are doing much of the work. That gap between the average and the win rate is why you should always check both.
Worst month: September
September is the only month with a negative average, at −1.16%. Even so, it still rose in 8 of 15 years. Its average is dragged down by a few sharp drops: −9.25% in 2022 and −6.95% in 2011. August is close to flat at +0.16%.
The most reliable SPY seasonal windows
Calendar months are a blunt tool. These specific date windows have been far more consistent:
| SPY window | Avg return | Rose in (15y) | Worst year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21 – Jul 21 | +3.22% | 15 of 15 | +0.45% |
| Oct 12 – Nov 11 | +3.52% | 14 of 15 | −3.31% |
| Jan 27 – Feb 16 | +2.32% | 14 of 15 | −4.70% |
| Dec 18 – Jan 17 | +1.89% | 13 of 15 | −6.10% |
| Apr 7 – Apr 27 | +1.82% | 13 of 15 | −7.02% |
On the weak side, September 15 to 25 fell in 11 of 15 years (average −1.32%), and February 15 to March 7 fell in 10 of 15 (average −1.29%, worst −11.89%).
See the live numbers on the SPY seasonality page and the S&P 500 (SPX) seasonality page, or read how the classic Santa Claus rally and Sell in May hold up.
Test any date range on the S&P 500 yourself.
Open SPY in the Chart ExplorerPast seasonal performance does not guarantee future results. Win rates and average returns are historical base rates, not predictions. This is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
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