ETF Seasonality: The Best Month for Every Sector ETF
November 3, 2026
Sector ETFs are a clean way to study seasonality, because a single company’s news can’t dominate the results. We measured the best and worst calendar month for 15 popular ETFs, using up to 15 years of adjusted prices through 2025. The pattern is striking: September was the worst month for 11 of the 15, and November the best for 7.
Best and worst month for each sector ETF
| ETF | Best month | Rose in | Worst month | Rose in |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK Technology | Jul +3.58% | 14 of 15 | Sep −1.06% | 7 of 15 |
| VGT Technology | Jul +3.64% | 13 of 15 | Sep −1.09% | 8 of 15 |
| SMH Semiconductors | Nov +5.66% | 12 of 15 | Apr −0.59% | 5 of 15 |
| XLF Financials | Nov +4.61% | 12 of 15 | Sep −1.35% | 5 of 15 |
| XLV Health Care | Nov +3.48% | 13 of 15 | Sep −0.84% | 6 of 15 |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary | Nov +4.02% | 12 of 15 | Sep −0.42% | 7 of 15 |
| XLP Consumer Staples | Nov +2.67% | 12 of 15 | Sep −1.24% | 7 of 15 |
| XLI Industrials | Nov +4.54% | 13 of 15 | Sep −0.94% | 8 of 15 |
| XLB Materials | Nov +3.89% | 14 of 15 | Sep −2.18% | 6 of 15 |
| XLE Energy | Apr +2.94% | 8 of 15 | Aug −1.56% | 6 of 15 |
| XLU Utilities | Mar +3.11% | 12 of 15 | Feb −0.84% | 9 of 15 |
| XLRE Real Estate | Jul +3.31% | 9 of 10 | Sep −2.95% | 3 of 10 |
| XLC Communication | Jan +4.50% | 5 of 7 | Sep −2.04% | 3 of 8 |
| GLD Gold | Jan +2.99% | 10 of 15 | Sep −1.61% | 4 of 15 |
| TLT Long-term Treasuries | Jul +1.46% | 10 of 15 | Oct −1.69% | 4 of 15 |
XLRE and XLC launched more recently, so their records are shorter, and XLC’s in particular is thin.
Technology ETF seasonality: XLK and VGT
XLK and VGT hold many of the same large technology companies and share a calendar: July is their best month, and XLK rose in 14 of 15 Julys. Chipmakers differ. SMH peaks in November (+5.66%), the highest best-month average in the table by more than a point, and its weakest month is April, not September.
The November cluster
Financials, health care, consumer, industrials and materials all peak in November. Materials is the most consistent of them: XLB rose in 14 of 15 Novembers, and also has the worst September of the 15-year group at −2.18%. XLF rose in just 5 of 15 Septembers.
The exceptions: energy, utilities, gold and bonds
- Energy (XLE) has the weakest seasonal signal: even its best month rose in only 8 of 15 years. Its most reliable month is February, up in 10 of 15.
- Utilities (XLU) peak in March, while October is their most reliable month, up in 13 of 15. Their November is just +0.63%.
- Gold (GLD) is strongest in January. It rose in only 4 of 15 Septembers, and November, the best month for many stock ETFs, averaged −1.02%.
- Long-term Treasuries (TLT) are weakest in October, up in 4 of 15, and their most reliable month is November, up in 11 of 15.
For each sector’s chart, month-by-month record and stock list, see the sector seasonality pages.
Scan whole sectors for the windows starting soon.
Open the Index ScannerPast seasonal performance does not guarantee future results. Win rates and average returns are historical base rates, not predictions. This is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
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