NVDA Seasonality: Nvidia Stock's Best and Worst Months
November 3, 2026
Nvidia has been one of the strongest stocks of the last 15 years, which makes NVDA seasonality tricky to read: a powerful uptrend lifts nearly every window. So the useful question isn’t just which months rose, but which rose reliably. This analysis covers adjusted prices from 2011 to 2025.
NVDA seasonality chart: the average year
Nvidia stock seasonality by month
| Month | NVDA avg return | Rose in (15y) |
|---|---|---|
| January | +7.20% | 8 of 15 |
| February | +7.41% | 11 of 15 |
| March | +2.50% | 8 of 15 |
| April | −0.67% | 8 of 15 |
| May | +12.00% | 13 of 15 |
| June | +3.00% | 9 of 15 |
| July | +4.53% | 9 of 15 |
| August | +5.52% | 11 of 15 |
| September | −0.57% | 9 of 15 |
| October | +5.04% | 10 of 15 |
| November | +7.21% | 12 of 15 |
| December | −1.47% | 7 of 15 |
May: Nvidia's strongest month
May stands out on both measures: an average of +12.00% and a gain in 13 of 15 years. Its typical year is lower than the average suggests, though, with a median of +8.23%, because of big years like 2017 (+38.5%) and 2023 (+36.3%). It has also had a −25.1% May, in 2019. NVDA’s four most reliable months, May, November, February and August, are also the months Nvidia has typically reported earnings, so earnings reactions are likely a large part of this pattern.
Why January's average misleads
January looks excellent at +7.20%, but the median January is only +0.48%, and NVDA rose in just 8 of 15. A single +51.2% January in 2011 inflates the average. This is the classic trap in seasonal data: a high average without a high win rate usually means a few outsized years.
The most reliable NVDA seasonal windows
| NVDA window | Avg return | Rose in (15y) | Worst year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30 – Feb 19 | +9.94% | 14 of 15 | −2.54% |
| May 20 – Jun 19 | +9.90% | 13 of 15 | −12.60% |
| Oct 22 – Nov 11 | +9.89% | 13 of 15 | −11.05% |
| Aug 2 – Sep 1 | +5.93% | 13 of 15 | −24.77% |
Weak stretches are also clear: September 15 to 25 fell in 12 of 15 years (average −1.69%), and February 27 to March 9 fell in 11 of 15 (average −2.78%, worst −17.21%), just after the strong late-January to mid-February run.
See the live chart, monthly table and upcoming windows on the NVDA seasonality page.
Check any Nvidia date range against every year.
Open NVDA in the Chart ExplorerPast seasonal performance does not guarantee future results. Win rates and average returns are historical base rates, not predictions. This is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
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