SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPYM) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for SPYM — the calendar windows where SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
Data: 2016–2025 daily closes, split- and dividend-adjusted · updated Nov 2, 2026 · methodology
SPYM seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, SPYM's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 30 – Nov 29: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.02% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, SPYM has historically declined between Mar 1 – Mar 11, falling in 7 of 10 years (average -1.27%).
In total, our analysis finds 519 recurring seasonal windows for SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF — 457 bullish and 62 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Nov 3 – Nov 23, opens tomorrow. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
SPYM's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 58d ago | Aug 6 – Sep 5 | 30d | +1.22% | 80% | +0.22% |
| Completedended 59d ago | Aug 5 – Sep 4 | 30d | +1.75% | 90% | +0.07% |
| Active10d left | Nov 2 – Nov 12 | 10d | +2.57% | 100% | — |
| Active20d left | Nov 2 – Nov 22 | 20d | +2.71% | 80% | — |
| Active30d left | Nov 2 – Dec 2 | 30d | +4.18% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingtomorrow | Nov 3 – Nov 23 | 20d | +2.61% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingtomorrow | Nov 3 – Dec 3 | 30d | +3.99% | 90% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SPYM monthly seasonality
Over the last 10 years, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF's best calendar month has been November (average +4.42%, higher in 9 of 10 years) and its weakest September (average -1.18%, higher in 6 of 10 years). SPYM has closed higher more often than not in 10 of the 12 months.
| Month | Avg return | Higher in | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.63% | 7 of 10 yrs | +8.49% | -5.23% |
| February | -0.23% | 5 of 10 yrs | +4.76% | -8.06% |
| March | +0.37% | 7 of 10 yrs | +6.13% | -12.53% |
| April | +1.09% | 6 of 10 yrs | +12.77% | -8.81% |
| May | +1.72% | 9 of 10 yrs | +6.33% | -6.28% |
| June | +2.00% | 9 of 10 yrs | +7.11% | -8.32% |
| July | +3.48% | 10 of 10 yrs | +9.23% | +1.12% |
| August | +1.07% | 7 of 10 yrs | +7.01% | -4.05% |
| September | -1.18% | 6 of 10 yrs | +3.54% | -9.26% |
| October | +0.72% | 5 of 10 yrs | +8.17% | -7.05% |
| NovemberNow | +4.42% | 9 of 10 yrs | +10.84% | -0.69% |
| December | +0.16% | 7 of 10 yrs | +4.55% | -9.05% |
Monthly return = close on the last day of the month vs. the last day of the month before, from split- and dividend-adjusted prices. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore SPYM seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
SPYM seasonality FAQ
What is SPYM's best month of the year?
Over the last 10 years, SPYM's strongest calendar month has been November, with an average return of +4.42% and a gain in 9 of 10 years. Its weakest has been September, averaging -1.18%.
How does SPYM usually perform in November?
SPYM has closed November higher in 9 of the last 10 years, with an average return of +4.42%. Its best November returned +10.84% and its worst -0.69%.
What has historically been the best month to buy SPYM stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, SPYM's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 30 to Nov 29, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +4.02%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is SPYM's strongest seasonal pattern?
SPYM's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 30 – Nov 29 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +4.02%.
When has SPYM historically performed worst?
SPYM's weakest recurring window has been Mar 1 to Mar 11, declining in 7 of 10 years with an average return of -1.27%.
How reliable are SPYM's seasonal patterns?
Each SPYM pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. SPYM currently shows 519 recurring windows (457 bullish, 62 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
New to seasonality? Read what stock seasonality is and how these numbers are calculated. Seasonality describes past behaviour, not a forecast.