TSLA Seasonality: Tesla Stock's Best and Worst Months
November 3, 2026
Tesla swings so widely that its averages can mislead. Eleven of its twelve months have a positive average, yet in some of them the stock fell more often than it rose. So the key to reading TSLA seasonality is comparing the average with the median and the win rate. These figures use split-adjusted prices from 2011 to 2025.
TSLA seasonality chart: the average year
Tesla stock seasonality by month
| Month | TSLA avg return | Median | Rose in (15y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | +6.11% | +1.79% | 9 of 15 |
| February | +1.51% | −0.44% | 6 of 15 |
| March | −0.83% | −1.12% | 7 of 15 |
| April | +6.16% | +4.78% | 9 of 15 |
| May | +6.13% | −0.06% | 7 of 15 |
| June | +9.02% | +8.71% | 11 of 15 |
| July | +5.28% | +1.10% | 8 of 15 |
| August | +6.53% | +1.18% | 8 of 15 |
| September | +2.14% | −1.42% | 6 of 15 |
| October | +2.18% | −3.09% | 5 of 15 |
| November | +7.19% | +3.90% | 10 of 15 |
| December | +2.74% | +3.50% | 10 of 15 |
June: Tesla's most dependable month
June is the one month where the numbers agree: an average of +9.02%, a nearly identical median of +8.71%, and a gain in 11 of 15 years. Its worst June was −11.19%, in 2022, which is mild by Tesla’s standards. November (+7.19%, up in 10 of 15) and December (+2.74%, also 10 of 15) are the next most consistent.
Where the average misleads: May and October
May averages +6.13%, but its median is about zero and it rose in only 7 of 15 years. One month, an +81.07% May in 2013, does most of that work. October is similar: a +2.18% average, yet TSLA rose in only 5 of 15 Octobers, with a −3.09% median, because of a +43.65% October in 2021. In a stock this volatile, always check the median.
The most reliable TSLA seasonal windows
| TSLA window | Avg return | Rose in (15y) | Worst year |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24 – Jun 23 | +11.92% | 14 of 15 | −9.87% |
| Sep 9 – Sep 19 | +8.61% | 14 of 15 | −6.88% |
| Nov 20 – Nov 30 | +2.95% | 13 of 15 | −6.33% |
| Jan 28 – Feb 7 | +3.87% | 12 of 15 | −14.29% |
The weak windows, and a sharp September reversal
September shows how quickly TSLA’s seasonal tendencies have flipped. After rising from September 9 to 19 in 14 of 15 years, the stock then fell from September 19 to October 9 in 12 of 15 (average −5.28%, worst −27.83%). The other weak stretch is February 16 to March 18, which fell in 12 of 15 years, averaging −7.23%, with a worst year of −54.85%.
See the live chart, monthly table and upcoming windows on the TSLA seasonality page, or read about other large-cap summer setups.
Check any Tesla date range against every year.
Open TSLA in the Chart ExplorerPast seasonal performance does not guarantee future results. Win rates and average returns are historical base rates, not predictions. This is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
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