SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) Seasonality
Recurring seasonal patterns for XRT — the calendar windows where SPDR S&P Retail ETF has historically tended to rise or fall, with the win rate (how often it repeated) and average return for each, based on the last 10 years of price history.
Data: 2016–2025 daily closes, split- and dividend-adjusted · updated Nov 4, 2026 · methodology
XRT seasonality chart
XRT seasonality at a glance
Over the last 10 years, XRT's strongest seasonal window has been Oct 29 – Nov 28: it ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +6.70% across a 30-day hold. On the weak side, XRT has historically declined between Mar 4 – Apr 3, falling in 8 of 10 years (average -3.66%).
In total, our analysis finds 624 recurring seasonal windows for SPDR S&P Retail ETF — 439 bullish and 185 bearish. The next high-win-rate window, Nov 6 – Nov 26, opens in 2 days. These figures describe historical behaviour only — not a forecast.
XRT's upcoming & recent seasonal patterns
Holding period:10-day20-day30-dayOrdered by season — windows opening soon first, plus a couple of recently completed high-performers. Holding-period colors help you compare durations at a glance.
| Status | Seasonal window | Hold | Avg return | Win rate | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completedended 22d ago | Sep 13 – Oct 13 | 30d | -1.82% | 80% | -0.33% |
| Completedended 23d ago | Sep 12 – Oct 12 | 30d | -2.70% | 80% | -0.55% |
| Active10d left | Nov 4 – Nov 14 | 10d | +2.58% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 2d | Nov 6 – Nov 26 | 20d | +4.58% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 3d | Nov 7 – Nov 27 | 20d | +4.34% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 3d | Nov 7 – Dec 7 | 30d | +5.18% | 80% | — |
| Upcomingin 4d | Nov 8 – Nov 28 | 20d | +4.86% | 80% | — |
Win rate = how often the pattern repeated in the same direction. Average return = the mean move across all analysed years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
XRT monthly seasonality
Over the last 10 years, SPDR S&P Retail ETF's best calendar month has been November (average +7.29%, higher in 8 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -1.95%, higher in 3 of 10 years). XRT has closed higher more often than not in 3 of the 12 months.
| Month | Avg return | Higher in | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.85% | 5 of 10 yrs | +36.83% | -9.48% |
| February | -1.93% | 3 of 10 yrs | +10.72% | -9.94% |
| March | -1.95% | 3 of 10 yrs | +12.75% | -25.61% |
| April | +0.82% | 5 of 10 yrs | +23.17% | -9.12% |
| May | -0.20% | 5 of 10 yrs | +11.23% | -12.32% |
| June | +2.10% | 7 of 10 yrs | +12.71% | -11.63% |
| July | +4.19% | 9 of 10 yrs | +10.38% | -2.02% |
| August | +0.13% | 4 of 10 yrs | +9.42% | -6.62% |
| September | -0.99% | 4 of 10 yrs | +7.14% | -10.52% |
| October | -1.15% | 4 of 10 yrs | +11.18% | -7.61% |
| NovemberNow | +7.29% | 8 of 10 yrs | +20.54% | -1.67% |
| December | -0.14% | 5 of 10 yrs | +12.47% | -11.19% |
Monthly return = close on the last day of the month vs. the last day of the month before, from split- and dividend-adjusted prices. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore XRT seasonality in full
See the seasonal curve chart, filter by win rate and return, and track upcoming windows — free during beta.
XRT seasonality FAQ
What is XRT's best month of the year?
Over the last 10 years, XRT's strongest calendar month has been November, with an average return of +7.29% and a gain in 8 of 10 years. Its weakest has been March, averaging -1.95%.
How does XRT usually perform in November?
XRT has closed November higher in 8 of the last 10 years, with an average return of +7.29%. Its best November returned +20.54% and its worst -1.67%.
What has historically been the best month to buy XRT stock?
Based on the last 10 years of price data, XRT's strongest seasonal window starts in October: Oct 29 to Nov 28, which ended higher in 10 of 10 years (100% win rate) with an average return of +6.70%. Past seasonal patterns do not guarantee future performance.
What is XRT's strongest seasonal pattern?
XRT's highest-win-rate pattern in our data is the Oct 29 – Nov 28 window (30-day hold): up in 10 of the last 10 years with an average move of +6.70%.
When has XRT historically performed worst?
XRT's weakest recurring window has been Mar 4 to Apr 3, declining in 8 of 10 years with an average return of -3.66%.
How reliable are XRT's seasonal patterns?
Each XRT pattern is scored by its historical win rate — the share of the last 10 years it repeated in the same direction. XRT currently shows 624 recurring windows (439 bullish, 185 bearish). Seasonality describes historical tendencies only; it is not a prediction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
New to seasonality? Read what stock seasonality is and how these numbers are calculated. Seasonality describes past behaviour, not a forecast.